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Topics discussed:

  • Why setting the right baseline is critical for demonstrating additionality of forest carbon projects

  • Why combining social, environmental, and forest management datasets leads to better baseline predictions

  • How the NCX baseline model directly incorporates environmental, social, and management factors to tailor baselines for individual properties

  • How NCX data scientists update harvest baselines on an annual basis

More about baseline scenarios

Setting good baseline scenarios is critical for demonstrating additionality of forest carbon projects. But how do we know when a project has a "good" baseline, and is therefore producing quality carbon credits?

In this talk, Dr. Joe Shannon will describe how NCX data scientists use an iterative, evidence-based approach to set property-specific baselines. He will discuss the current status of the NCX baseline model, how it has developed, and directions for future improvement.

Meet your expert hosts:


Dr. Joe Shannon
Data Scientist

Joe is a data scientist at NCX with a background in forestry and forest hydrology. His primary work is maintaining and improving the NCX harvest risk model we use to estimate the expected impact of forest management on carbon.

He started in forestry at the University of New Hampshire. After graduation, he worked for the US Forest Service performing inventories and timber sale preparation. He spent 13 years in Minnesota and Michigan researching the impact of forest management, invasive insects, and climate change on water quality and quantity, before joining NCX.

He currently lives in Rhode Island with his family.


Dr. Jen Balachowski
Sustainability Science and Communications Lead

Jen leads collaborative research and communication to enhance the quality of forest carbon credits available on the market at NCX.

Prior to joining NCX, she was an expert in climate change adaptation science and communication for the US Forest Service. Her specialty areas include climate-informed reforestation, restoration, forest planning, and international development.

Jen earned her Ph.D. in restoration ecology from the University of California, Davis, and as a Fulbright Fellow at CEFE-CNRS in France. She has an M.Ed. in science education and has taught in a wide range of formal and informal settings from California to Kenya.

She grew up in Maryland and currently lives in Washington, DC with her family.

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